I really didn't (and don't) intend this blog to be a political thing. I do enough of that during the day. But politics has been on my mind lately, with Ohio being ground zero for a period and with the Democratic primary race heating up, so please bear with me. I promise you, soon we'll be back to boring chronologies of my weekends and whiny stories of my bad luck in the romantic universe. But until then, ponder this:
Doing my daily online media cycle, I came across the funniest little blurb about a conference call PA Gov. Rendell and Philly Mayor Nutter did with campaign media. The thrust of their argument was that although HRC has pretty high (and stable) unfavorability numbers, they promise to all but disappear by the November elections, should HRC become the party's standard-bearer.
This is hilarious for several reasons, but here are the top two.
First, Rendell's evidence that unfavorability erosion can and will occur? Himself. "“When this started a year ago, I didn’t like Hillary Clinton.” Now that's a surrogate for you.
Second, do these two really think 8 more months is gonna make a difference? I mean, HRC has been a household name for 16 years! And her early (though now evaporated) advantage was the very thing that leads to her high unfavorables: America knows her. People like her or don't, but only very few haven't a clue. And I just don't think more exposure to her is gonna make them like her more. (See this link for some interesting graphics.)
I guess Bill could cheat on her again. That always seems to improve her numbers in the short term. Plus, it isn't like that isn't something HRC is averse to exploiting (see New Hampshire or even the recent CSU debate fore evidence). Besides, another bout of infidelity from Bill isn't that unlikely of a development and is one the former prez would probably endorse on the merits. My best friend from grad school recently told me of something he had heard or read about Chelsea dating a Florida super-delegate. If Chelsea will do it, why not Bill? And he can date way more than one person at a time.
In the meantime, take a look at the graph below. Smooth out the lines and what do you see? A whole lot of stability. Between the pictures you can view at the link above and the picture below, can we really expect anything meaningful to change? I doubt it, which is why I'm a little more (extremely cautiously) optimistic that the super-delegates will go with Barack. Favorability numbers, general election prognostication, down ticket coattail strength, partisan realignment possibilities -- all these things and more favor my guy from Illinois. One would think/hope that they would also influence the strategic decision making of the several hundred savviest pols in the DNC.
4 weeks ago